State of the race, GOP edition
The listlessness of the Republican race grows more profound by the day. Had Fred Thompson been serious (stop laughing), he could have garnered serious momentum by now, and if he had made "rookie mistakes," he could be fixing them now. At present, Thompson remains the southern frontrunner. (The recent primary acceleration of SC to earlier-January is a big boost for Thompson.)
Romney, despite carpet-bombing California, Florida, South Carolina, Iowa and New Hampshire with ads, on top of generally slobbering media favoritism from Drudge, the Politico, etc., has moved nowhere in the past two months. That's even true of the early states; in South Carolina, he may have actually gone down. It baffles me why Romney remains the toast of the GOP elite; but many Romney backers are apparently also backing Thompson.
There have been three overall trends in the GOP race.
Rudy seems to have found a floor around 25 percent. That's a good sign for him, but his bounce came mostly from McCain's implosion rather than any particular expertise on his part. Then again, by the standards of McCain's erstwhile campaign, lying low has amounted to tactical genius. Giuliani's recent statement of admiration for McCain means that Rudy is aggressively bidding for McCain's support. I think McCain's support is mostly a mirage, so the wisdom of that strategy is highly questionable.
Thompson has lost some steam since the hype kicked into high gear in June, only to cannibalize itself on Thompson's steady stream of personnel replacements, pushed-back announcement dates, etc. For a long time, the Thompson team retained a very misguided notion of how badly Republicans wanted a conservative alternative; hence Thompson's ongoing tease of a non-campaign. They finally figured out that Republicans don't have the patience for that, so Thompson has decided to end the teasing and announce on Sept. 5. That's all well and good, but Thompson needs to be way more forceful in his public appearances than he has been so far. His slow Southern drawl connotes trustworthiness, but also slow thinking. It's very important for him to make a good first impression, particularly because McCain is a big wild card who might serve as someone else's attack dog against Thompson (with whom McCain was once very close).
The biggest wild card (besides first impressions of Thompson) is what I perceive to be the Thompson's team's disconnect with the GOP base. There are very few GOP "insiders" or "professionals" who understand the magnitude of GOP base disenchantment. I hope to god that Thompson stays away from the utterly empty and platitudinous "Reagan... Reagan ... Reaganesque" incantations. If the GOP base can't differentiate well between its candidates, the Super Tuesday outcome will be a function of electability and buzz, rather than (undifferentiable-in-this-case) perceived conservatism. Under that particular scenario, I'd think Giuliani would win, notwithstanding the Romney campaign's relentless scorched-earth tarring of rival GOP candidates. (Rudy would give them jobs for several lifetimes.)
Romney has, at extreme expense, upticked marginally in national polls. His continued early-state spending without much gain suggest that, barring something that shows a side of Romney we haven't seen (in a good way), Romney will need more than money and Drudgico favor to win the nomination.
McCain's national poll numbers will enjoy a "Lieberman effect" (from high name recognition) until after the Iowa and NH primaries. He is still irrelevant--unless he comes to an understanding with a more agreeable rival to play attack dog against a rival or rivals that he particularly dislikes. That will be bad news for Romney, and quite possibly Thompson as well. It would also help Giuliani or, possibly, Thompson, depending on how much goodwill might remain in the Thompson-McCain relationship.
